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Small temperature rise can cause large scale migration

May 02, 2023

Somali families

A 1°C temperature increase can cause a tenfold increase in displaced people, according to led by a collaborative team from the ßÉßɱ¬ÁÏ and the University of Oxford, which studied the effects of conflict, weather, and drought, on forced displacement in Somalia.

Dr Felix Pretis, a study author from the ßÉßɱ¬ÁÏ, says, ‘Crucially, we find little effect of incoming displaced people on conflict itself…This finding is novel, and dispels the common myth that displacement might further fuel conflicts.’

The international team, based at Oxford’s , the ßÉßɱ¬ÁÏ, and , analysed highly-detailed localised data from the 18 separate regions of Somalia, exploring the reasons over two million people were forced to flee over a two year period.

The study can be seen here